Investments planned for the new growth engine in Asia
HONG KONG, Oct. 10, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — According to the latest report from Allianz Trade, the global economy will continue to face challenges, with lackluster growth from the cumulative impact of monetary policy tightening until the end of 2024. Overall, global GDP growth is projected to slow to +2.7% in 2023 and +2.4% in 2024; the US will see a mere +1.1% GDP growth in 2024, the slowest rate since 2009; China is expected to see a slow landing to +4.7% in 2024 and +4.2% in 2025; for Asia Pacific as a whole, Allianz Trade anticipates a growth rate of +4.1% for 2024 and +3.9% for 2025.
Meanwhile, India is on track to outpace regional peers in terms of real GDP growth over the next decade including China, emerging Asia as well as ASEAN countries. Allianz Trade expects the Indian economy to grow by an average of +6.4% between 2023 and 2027. Supported by strong economic growth and to service the needs of its customers, Allianz Trade has identified India as another growth engine in Asia. In response, Allianz Trade has recently appointed a new Country Manager to support growth in India and further investments are planned this year.
In terms of exporting, the US remains by far the largest export partner for India, with export gains for India expected to reach US$6.86 billion in 2024. The UAE and the Netherlands come next as top export partners, where export gains are estimated at US$2.68 billion and US$1.58 billion respectively. China and Singapore round out the top five with export gains reaching US$1.29 billion and US$1.01 billion respectively. Among the key sectors, India is expected to reap the highest export gains from software and IT services of approximately US$19.28 billion in 2024.
As for business insolvencies, Allianz Trade forecasted a rebound in insolvencies in India this year, largely driven by the catch-up effect due to the long suspension of courts during the Covid years. Insolvencies in India are expected to increase by +36% this year and +6% in 2024. Despite the relatively high insolvency numbers, both working capital requirement (WCR) and days sales outstanding (DSO) in India are expected to see a marginal increase of 5 days and 3 days respectively. Overall, Asia and Latin America remain the only two regions with insolvencies not yet returned to 2019 levels by 2024.
“India is poised to become the second largest economy in Asia Pacific by 2030. An important driving force is its large and fast-growing middle class, which is helping to fuel consumer spending. Furthermore, India is going to be one of the most important long-term growth markets for multinationals in a wide range of industries, including manufacturing such as automotive, electronics, pharmaceuticals, speciality chemicals and in services such as banking, financial services, insurance, health care and IT,” says Imran Khan, Country Manager for India at Allianz Trade in Asia Pacific.
“Meanwhile, the trade credit insurance market in India (excluding ECGC premiums) has grown by more than 16% on average over the past five years. While businesses continue to show robust growth, risk mitigation becomes equally important. Allianz Trade continues to help clients across sectors to do business with confidence and we look forward to working closely with our partners to support the Indian business and be a part of this growth journey, to which we anticipate the trade credit insurance industry should see 20% growth as businesses resuming normal,” Mr Khan concludes.
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We predict trade and credit risk today, so companies can have confidence in tomorrow
Allianz Trade is the global leader in trade credit insurance and a recognized specialist in the areas of surety, collections, structured trade credit and political risk. Our proprietary intelligence network analyses daily changes in +80 million corporates solvency. We give companies the confidence to trade by securing their payments. We compensate your company in the event of a bad debt, but more importantly, we help you avoid bad debt in the first place. Whenever we provide trade credit insurance or other finance solutions, our priority is predictive protection. But, when the unexpected arrives, our AA credit rating means we have the resources, backed by Allianz to provide compensation to maintain your business. Headquartered in Paris, Allianz Trade is present in 52 countries with 5,500 employees. In 2022, our consolidated turnover was EUR3.3 billion and insured global business transactions represented EUR1,057 billion in exposure. For more information, please visit allianz-trade.com
Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements
The statements contained herein may include prospects, statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management’s current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. Such deviations may arise due to, without limitation, (I) changes of the general economic conditions and competitive situation, particularly in the Allianz Group’s core business and core markets, (II) performance of financial markets (particularly market volatility, liquidity and credit events), (III) frequency and severity of insured loss events, including from natural catastrophes, and the development of loss expenses, (IV) mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (V) persistency levels, (VI) particularly in the banking business, the extent of credit defaults, (VII) interest rate levels, (VIII) currency exchange rates including the euro/US-dollar exchange rate, (IX) changes in laws and regulations, including tax regulations, (X) the impact of acquisitions, including related integration issues, and reorganization measures, and (XI) general competitive factors, in each case on a local, regional, national and/or global basis. Many of these factors may be more likely to occur, or more pronounced, as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences.
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SOURCE Allianz Trade in Asia Pacific