WHAT WAS CLAIMED
The Reserve Bank of Australia has announced it is preparing for a nationwide recession.
OUR VERDICT
Misleading. The central bank is developing policies for a hypothetical future crisis, not an imminent recession.
AAP FACTCHECK - The Reserve Bank has not announced it's preparing for a national recession that Australia is "heading into", despite claims online.
The central bank's actual announcement outlined a long-term contingency plan for future economic crises rather than an imminent downturn.
The bank is forecasting continued economic growth, albeit at a slow pace.
The claim is in a Facebook video by a real estate agent on June 30, 2026, with a caption reading: "Australia is heading into another national recession. The RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia have already begun preparing".
"Breaking news out of Australia, the RBA has just announced that they are now preparing for a nationwide recession," a man in the video says.
"You've heard that correctly. This has just come out today."
Overlay text on the video reads: "Brace for impact: RBA preparing for recession."
AAP FactCheck found no credible evidence that the RBA had announced, around the date the video was posted, that it was preparing for an imminent recession.
In a speech on June 29, RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent discussed how monetary policy could be used to limit future economic shocks, but he didn't forecast a recession.
Instead, he was launching a framework for designing and using such policy tools to stimulate the economy if interest rates fall to near zero.
Dr Kent's announcement was described in a Sydney Morning Herald report as the bank's plan for dealing with "the next COVID-like crisis".
University of Sydney economist Stella Huangfu said the announcement was not a warning that the country was heading into a recession.
"The framework is a contingency plan that explains how the bank would respond if interest rates were already very low and additional support became necessary," Associate Professor Huangfu told AAP FactCheck.
"Developing contingency plans and conducting 'fire-drills' is good central banking practice—it reflects prudent preparation, not a prediction that a recession is imminent."
An RBA spokesperson told AAP FactCheck the claim was inaccurate and that it was not forecasting a recession.
The bank's May 2026 Statement of Monetary Policy forecast gross domestic product to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2026 and 1.4 per cent in 2027.
RBA governor Michele Bullock also confirmed during a June 16 media conference that the bank was not expecting a sudden downturn.
"We're not forecasting a recession," Ms Bullock said.
On June 4, Ms Bullock told a Senate committee that growth would continue even if the Middle East conflict was prolonged or worsened.
"While these are challenging conditions, the economy is still expected to grow, albeit modestly, even under these scenarios where oil prices are significantly higher than recent levels," the RBA governor said.
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